What This Year’s Super Bowl Tells Us About The Future Of Commerce

Hello Walton’s Weekly Wramblings Fans!

One of the biggest reasons I enjoy watching the Super Bowl every year (aside from the football, of course) is that commercials are a beacon into how commerce is changing.

Pets.com anyone?

Yes, Super Bowl commercials are a reflection of both where the trends are now and where they are going next. 

Here then are my thoughts on what this year’s commercials tell us about the future of commerce.

The AI Arms Race Is Afoot

Both OpenAI and, especially, Anthropic came out guns blaring. Anthropic’s pitch was why should we, as users, trust our search results when they are influenced by “incongruous” and “in many cases, in appropriate” product placements. This idea was captured (hysterically, I might add) in its first ad of the evening, in which a young man asks for advice about communicating with his mother, and the AI then smoothly transitions from helpful guidance into an ad for a “mature dating site that connects sensitive cubs with roaring cougars.”

Which raises two important questions: 1) Where was this technology when I was in my 20s? 2) Do consumers really care about getting served up ads?

The answer to the only question of the two that matters, the second question, is: No.

History is the guide here. Google has existed and thrived with well-crafted product placement for decades. Even the streaming services, like Netflix and Amazon Prime, have been moving towards ad-supported models. What really matters is making it easy to see what is an ad and what is not in the mind of the consumer. As long as that happens, people will likely gravitate towards the “free” model.

So, as much as Anthropic’s play this year was a great media hook, in the end it does not mean all that much. What it does do, however, quite effectively, is tell the world that ChatGPT isn’t the only horse in the race.

Third-Party Food Delivery Has Reached Its Peak

Three (yes, three!) of the big third-party food delivery services launched ads this year. Instacart, Grubhub, and UberEats all went big for this year’s game.

Grubhub even managed to play the Monty Python “I’m not dead yet” card of offering no delivery and service fees on restaurant orders over $50. 

Whenever I see this cavalcade of advertising, I think of one word.

Carnage.

Everyone is trying to carve up the same pie, the margins are getting tighter, and the competition is getting fiercer by the minute as the AI engines come into play and as retailers (like Amazon and Walmart) start to muscle their way into the game.

All of this stands to benefit the consumer and the grocery and food service providers that rely on these networks.

Putting Up A Storefront Is Going To Get Even Easier

The last thing that struck me about this year’s crop of ads was that it had companies like Wix, Squarespace, and Base44 all vying for the attention of the independent creator economy.

What this tells me is that, aided by AI, becoming an entrepreneur, starting a side hustle, or even becoming “Instagram” famous will get even easier. The barriers to entry to start, i.e. the fixed costs of starting one’s own business are going to become so small that the concept of “all you need is an idea and a dream” will soon be an actual reality, if it isn’t already.

While this may be a scary thought for some, there will be even more Kardashians in the future than less Kardashians. 

You can take that to the bank.

Best Buckle Up Butter Cup

The number one thing all the above tells me is that the competition for the consumer dollar is going to get even tougher.

There will be more influencers, more competing outlets for commerce, all displacing the traditional merchant/consumer relationship of branded retailers. Moreover, the costs of omnichannel retailing, getting products whenever and however you want, will also start to go down as industry verticals congeal and AI adds the productivity boost that it will most likely add.

But, perhaps most importantly, the interface by which we will conduct commerce 10 years from now has yet to take shape. It is about as greenfield as one can get.

Though it too will probably be sponsored by Draft Kings.

Be careful out there,

– Chris and the entire Omni Talk team